Why Obama Will Win the Election

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
As the Election Day gets closer, the probability for presidential candidate Barack Obama to win is supported by not only almost all latest polls but also by the analysis results of several economic models. Although some people make their points that it's far too early to assume that McCain's recent dip signals the end of his presidential chances for such reasons as his organizational strength, Republican Party history and his experience, etc., (By Chris Cillizaa, washingtonpost.com's Politics Blog, 2008) but it seems there is no doubt that Obama will keep his leading to the end. Here is why. 1. National Poll & International Poll  All three latest important national polls suggest Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is widening his lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain in the race for the White House especially after two election debates. (more…)...
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Obama’s Celebrity 21st Century Campaign

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
After months of political pandering, smear attacks, unexpected announcements and partially explicated promises, Americans are about to head to the polls and decide who will be the next president of the United States of America. However, recent numbers indicate that for better or for worse, Senator Barack Obama will become the 44th president of the country. According to the most recent average of existing polls collected by the Real Clear Politics Web site, Obama is favored by 49.9 percent of the national electorate to Senator John McCain’s 42.3 percent. Additionally, again according to Real Clear Politics, Obama is projected to win 277 electoral votes (with a hundred more up for grabs). Only 270 are needed to win the presidency; the polling figures seem irrefutable. However, poll results have the propensity for being wrong. For example, 2000 Democratic Party nominee Al Gore was winning the presidential polls by seven percent in mid-September of that year, according to a News Hour with Jim Lehrer clip. Gore did...
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McCain Will Win the Presidency

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
As the general election comes closer to an end still no one knows who our next president will be. Polls currently show Obama in the lead, but polls don’t actually mean anything at the end of the day. McCain will more than likely win the general election for four key reasons; race, gender, age, and appeal. In the 2008 presidential election race has been the elephant in the room from the start. (Well McCain has been the elephant in the room, so lets say the awkward topic). Few people want to talk about it and half the time when it comes up someone shouts, “racist!” But race will play a major factor in this election nonetheless. Polls will not show racism, but focus groups sometimes can. According to Jerry Austin, Democratic political consultant, white, blue-collar males in Pennsylvania focus groups agree. Many focus group members agreed they supported Obama, he is the democrat, union candidate that fights for their issues, but...
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New Media Update

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
The Obama campaign continues its reign on the Internet with two sites worth a mention.  First is the campaign’s mini-site Vote for Change, which allows people to find a polling location or share their campaign interests with friends through Facebook or MySpace.  Second, and even cooler, is theNeighbor to Neighbor Web site, a GOTV toolkit for any budding enthusiast.  Here, you can find list of voters by neighborhood or state, a script for your phone conversations, and a flyer you can distribute should you decide to go door-to-door.  Then you can use the site to report your results.  Confused?  Training and support are available to show you the way. Take a look at L Magazine’s guide to the new media landscape, which covers the spectrum of online political content.  It is user-friendly, easy to navigate, and offers a clever way to navigate the online minefield that has sprung from this campaign. It's worth noting that the scoring is done based on a spectrum of political minds from Chairman Mao ("The scare...
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Perlmutter Speaks on American Political Blogging to Europeans (Dept. of State)

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
I just finished up a U.S. Department of State speaking tour of the Netherlands and Germany. Interest in American politics, new media and this election was VERY high. For more on the events in Munich--sponsored by the U.S. Consulate--go here. My different events and speeches: David D. Perlmutter. Panelist: Discussion on the Presidential Debates, Munich Conference on "U.S. Elections 2008: The Digital Campaign" at the German-American Institute, Munich, Germany, October 8, 2008. David D. Perlmutter. Keynote speaker on "Blogwars: The New Political Battleground," Munich Conference on "U.S. Elections 2008: The Digital Campaign" at the German-American Institute, Munich, Germany, October 8, 2008. David D. Perlmutter. Keynote speaker on "Overview of the New Media Landscape," Munich Conference on "U.S. Elections 2008: The Digital Campaign," on German Public Radio, Munich, Germany, October 7, 2008. David D. Perlmutter. Presentation on "U.S. Elections and New Media" at the German-American Institute, Nürnberg, Germany, October 6, 2008. David D. Perlmutter. Presentation on "U.S. Elections and New Media" at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, Netherlands, October 3,...
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Perlmutter Speaks about Medical Blogs to New England Journal of Medicine

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
While political blogging gets lots of attention, there are many kinds of blogging that are equally or more popular. I have posted here in the past about the types of medical blogs and even suggested a "Hippocratic Oath" for medical bloggers. I had the opportunity to twice speak on the subject for the New England Journal of Medicine. David D. Perlmutter. Featured speaker on "Medical Blogging: Challenges and Opportunities for Health Professionals," New England Journal of Medicine New Horizons Conference, Wellesley, MA, October 24-25, 2008. David D. Perlmutter. Featured speaker on "Building an Online Community for Professionals: The Lessons of Political Blogging." Massachusetts Medical Society & New England Journal of Medicine Committee on Publications, Waltham, MA, October 22, 2008.   Originally posted October 29, 2008 at PolicyByBlog ...
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A Slow (or Bright) Blog Manifesto

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
It ought also to be said that he was immensely painstaking. [When he made] Broad and powerful statements...they were no mere assertions, but the product of countless hours of research into the minutiae of the subject. Even by the usual scrupulous standards of comparative philology, Tolkien was extraordinary in this respect. His concern for accuracy cannot be overemphasized, and it was doubly valuable because it was coupled with a flair for detecting patterns and relations. 'Detecting' is a good word, for it is not too great a flight of fancy to picture him as a linguistic Sherlock Holmes, presenting himself with an apparently disconnected series of facts and deducing from them the truth about some major matter. He also demonstrated his ability to 'detect' on a simpler level, for when discussing a word or phrase with a pupil he would cite a wide range of comparable forms and expressions in other languages.* I have been thinking lately about these words written...
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Mars Lander: Death Blog

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
Computerworld reports the last post of NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander: "So long, Earth. I'll be here to greet the next explorers to arrive, be they robot or human." You wonder what 2001's HAL would have put in his Twitter tweets and blog posts. "I've just picked up a fault in the AE-35 unit"? Originally posted November 11, 2008 at PolicyByBlog...
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Obama’s Win: An Argument Against the Balkanization Thesis

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
There are plenty of reasons to side with either view of Dr. David Perlmutter's "Blogwar by Balkanization" thesis: One could cite many examples, as he does in his book "Blogwars," arguing for or against this way of looking at political partisanship in blogs and new media. Are the contributors and users of political new media warring partisans, constantly at odds with each other and tearing at each other's thoughts – and throats? Or is that same group of contributors and lurkers seeking information to strengthen their views or finding information that enhances and increases their political knowledge and efficacy? There was a time when one could easily argue for Balkanization, that political bloggers and other creators and users of new media were hyper-partisan, hostile toward and nastily at odds with each other (or perhaps less dramatically, fervently devoted to posting content attacking and questioning the opposition). Indeed, "bloggers tend to be both more passionate about their politics and more partisan than the average voter"...
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The Balkanization of America

by David Perlmutter Comment Closed
Are blogs and similar forms of interactive media responsible for the Balkanization of the American political body? Certainly plenty of evidence exists to show the rifts are wide. Blogs are divided between left leaning versions, such as the extremely powerful Daily Kos, and those on the right, including the Drudge Report and Red State. The divide isn’t limited to online interactive media, however. Fox Newsserves a population that wants an alternative to what has been described as a liberal media bias in broadcast. Radio talk shows serve a similar purpose. Political books and movies speak to alternative visions. People have plenty of opportunities to hear, read and view opinions similar to their own. In blogs and other forms of OSIM, they have the opportunity to express their views and trade observations with like-minded people. The problem is this: very few people are talking across the divide. Agenda Setting Agenda Setting theory posits that media do not dictate what people think, but they do dictate what people think about. In the days...
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